The Anatomy of Snow Panic Sales

Any local news station worth their salt will do a story about the run on grocery stores right before a snowstorm. Empty shelves, full baskets, and long lines at the registers are the typical B-roll. What is it like to operate a grocery store in the lead up to one of these storms, and how do the sales compare to other holidays? Garlic and Roses spoke to a number of food co-ops to find out.

The winter storm that hit Jan 23-25 was forecast to affect more than half the country. At least 20 states issued emergency declarations before the storm arrived. That level of advance notice and forecasted severity will typically lead to people stocking up at grocery stores.

The management and staff of a grocery store have a number of things to plan for and balance in the shadow of an impending storm. Stores have months to prepare for Thanksgiving sales volume, a typical high water mark for sales during the year. A snowstorm could leave only days to increase purchases to meet demand. Items like firewood, ice melt and milk are in high demand from wholesalers and stores that wait can have their orders cut back.

Staffing a store on short notice for peak sales volume also presents challenges. With transaction counts that are often double that of a typical day, stores need extra help stocking key items and keeping all registers open throughout the day. The increased order size from stores around the region can cause issues for wholesalers and lead to late, cut back or canceled deliveries. These factors all add to the chaos of operations in a supply chain that typically thrives on day-to-day predictability.

When the storm arrives, stores need to make decisions on how to operate safely. Unlike a school district, each store evaluates whether it can safely open with enough staff to operate. Clearing sidewalks and blocking off areas underneath falling ice become part of the "other duties as assigned" section in a manager's job description. Stores can be reliant on private operators or municipal governments to plow out needed parking spaces.

Here are some real sales figures to give a sense of the impact this particular storm had on food co-ops.

Friendly City Food Co-op (Harrisonburg, VA)

❄️ Beat its best sales day by $20k on Thursday 1/22
❄️ 2nd best sales day ever on Friday 1/23
❄️ Beat previous best week ever by $62k. YOY weekly increase of 85%

"We also had local egg, bread and milk deliveries come in just as the previous day's deliveries were selling out. Gotta love the local food system!"

East End Food Co-op (Pittsburgh, PA)

❄️6th highest sales week of all-time
❄️3rd highest sales day ever on Friday 1/23
❄️Average basket size for storm shopping 19% larger than prior year

Lovettsville Cooperative Market (Lovettsville, VA)

❄️Best sales day ever on Saturday 1/24
❄️3 of the top 10 sales days ever in the week before the storm
❄️37% YOY sales growth for the week

"We were MUCH better stocked than our competitors. The nimbleness and resiliency of the Co-op supply chain showed up big, just as it did during covid. We were in stock on essentials, our big box competitors were not."

TPSS Co-op (Takoma Park, MD)

❄️3rd and 5th best sales days ever on 1/23 & 1/24
❄️Sales on Friday were 22% higher than Thanksgiving Wednesday
❄️2nd best 7-day sales ever behind Covid pantry-loading

Greenbelt Co-op Supermarket (Greenbelt, MD)

❄️Sales for the week 63% higher than Thanksgiving week
❄️Friday and Saturday sales 44% higher than the Wednesday before Thanksgiving

Fredericksburg Food Co-op (Fredericksburg, VA)

❄️Highest sales day ever on Thursday 1/22
❄️Thursday sales 47% higher than Thanksgiving Wednesday
❄️Weekly sales growth of 57% YOY

Common Market Co-op (Frederick, MD)

❄️Weekly sales growth of 37.7% YOY

Garlic and Roses put together a playlist to enjoy on snowy days now and into the future. Stay warm and saff.